{"id":2492,"date":"2019-08-15T16:44:38","date_gmt":"2019-08-15T14:44:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.dazzlepop.net\/site\/?p=2492"},"modified":"2019-08-15T16:45:23","modified_gmt":"2019-08-15T14:45:23","slug":"reflections-on-business-design-and-value","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.dazzlepop.net\/site\/reflections-on-business-design-and-value\/","title":{"rendered":"Reflections on Business, Design, and Value"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

On Value<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

In business school you spend a lot of time learning about the idea of value, which is surprisingly slippery \u2014 the value of a firm, an idea, a product, a service. Because of this you need a cross-section of disciplines to approximate value \u2014 marketing, strategy, statistics, law, operations, innovation, economics, and finance being the most common. And so you start to learn marketing frameworks about customer value, how accounting recognizes value, how the market estimates value, how to use financial valuation models, strategic approaches to creating value, business models to capture value, the ins and outs of Porter\u2019s value chain, the rampant focus in the 80\u2019s on increasing shareholder value (thanks Jack Welch)\u2026 you get the drift. Value is a thing. If you can contribute to creating, capturing, or approximating value, business wants it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the last decade design, inspired by Stanford\u2019s d.school, has started to infiltrate MBA programs in the form of design thinking while Jon Kolko\u2019s 2015 HBR article, \u201cDesign Thinking Comes of Age<\/a>\u201d heralded its arrival in the corporate world. Combining restraint with a focus on users, artifacts, and prototypes, Kolko positions design thinking as a way for organizations to embrace ambiguity and increase tolerance of failure. In this view, design thinking promises to cut through complexity and boost innovation, which both seem like valuable things for a business to be able to do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s been important about the emergence of design thinking aside from the capacities it creates is that it points to the activities<\/em> of design as a source of value, instead of focusing solely on the products<\/em><\/strong>of design. To me this is an important distinction and increases the relevance of design to business exponentially. It also means that design activities, when made visible as a source of value, have the potential to be learned and used across the entire organization.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Questions about the value of design are usually expressed as some variation on, \u201cwhat return are we getting on our design investment?\u201d In an attempt to answer this at face value designers try mapping traditional ROI calculations onto revenue streams or cost savings that design might impact. What is the expected revenue of the new product? What are the cost savings of the new design system? We look for metrics that will help us answer the question of ROI but in the process miss the forest for the trees. We contort ourselves into these ROI shapes thinking we are being good business allies but in the process we forget that the value of design is not just in the outcomes, but in the process of designing itself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I was at a conference for design leaders recently and several hallway conversations came up around the challenges designers face once they have a proverbial seat at the table. I\u2019ve been around the block with these but something new was emerging. Design leaders were lamenting how much design was a blocker to doing business! <\/em>Seriously.Like, \u201cwe have to be good business people now that we are in leadership positions and wow, design sure gets in the way of that!\u201d It\u2019s anecdotal but I suspect the lack of intelligibility between design and business might be part of this story. Engaged in the process of designing the value of design can feel so tangible, but when everyone else in an executive meeting is sharing speedometer dashboards of progress, what do you do?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dashboards (speedometer or otherwise) are fed with quantitative data. And quantitative data is super useful for modeling the health of a business. And wow do business people love models (and frameworks, let\u2019s be honest). But the thing with models is that they are all wrong. <\/em>Useful but wrong. I bring this up because for a long time, as a designer, I was intimidated by financial models and business metrics thinking they reflected a hard reality design didn\u2019t have access to. The handshake secret is that there is no hard reality. Income statements and balance sheets are designed just as much as a chair or an app. Generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) provide guidelines to how financial statements must be prepared, but there is a lot of creativity in how revenue can be recognized depending on your intent (raising venture capital, preparing for an IPO, buying back stock, hiding a Ponzi scheme, etc).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So here is what I\u2019m driving at: we will never be able to talk about the value of design using ROI because we\u2019re not really talking about design, but the output<\/em> of design. I\u2019m interested in finding models that help us talk about the value of doing<\/em> design, which is entirely possible given the mutable nature of business artifacts. But before we can talk about models, we need to reframe design as a method of learning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Designing as Learning<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

In Design Methods<\/a> J. Christopher Jones talks about the idea of designing as learning, as <\/em>\u201ca way of answering one of the questions that must be answered if one is to get from the ignorance-of-the-new, with which one begins, to the knowledge-of-the-new, with which one ends (knowledge of \u2018what the problem really is\u2019 as well as of solutions).\u201d People engage in design when they intend to create change in some future state. This usually starts with formal or informal inquiry. As a way of exploring this inquiry a designer might materialize their intention in some capacity to explore the suitability of both the inquiry and the potential solution in order to learn<\/em> whether it the impact matches the intention. Reflection on the outcomes will reshape the inquiry and likely refine or change it in some way, kicking off the design cycle anew. In this approach to the design loop we move through inquiry, creation, and reflection.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/
The three stages of design as a transformational learning loop.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Experience is also learning. Experiential Learning Theory<\/a> describes a four step cycle through which we learn from experience in order to consciously choose, direct, and control our life. Unlike the pedagogical style most of us were subjected to in American public schools, experiential learning puts our experiences to work as a source of doing, feeling, watching, and thinking. In the design loop we are creating<\/em> as a means for reflection and in the experiential learning cycle we are acting <\/em>as a means for reflection.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/
The four step process of the experiential learning cycle<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The diverging and converging that happens in the experiential learning cycle is mirrored in the Double Diamond. Given the cyclical nature of experiential learning the Double Diamond starts to look like a trigonomic visualization of learning cycles mapped over time as if it were a sine wave:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/
A variation on the double diamond. Which, if you extend these out infinitely, resembles sinusoidal wave forms of constantly iterating around a design loop or learning cycle.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

There is a remarkable amount of commonality among these models that involve intentionality, interaction, engagement, and reflection. But most importantly they incorporate a form of doing<\/em> that requires embodiment<\/em>. We have to act<\/em> or create<\/em> in the world to complete the iterative cycle of learning (and designing).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Design, Real Options, and Risk<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

So back to this question of value (and models). Why is learning through designing valuable to a business? By embracing ambiguity and exploring divergent futures, design activities can increase flexibility and decrease risk. Let\u2019s go back to the idea of ROI.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ROI is a simple model for estimating whether or not a project should be invested in based on discounted cashflows (DCF) and net present value (NPV). It looks out into the future and says, what type of revenue do we expect this to generate? And how much will it cost? Money in the future isn\u2019t worth the same as it is today so you have to discount those future cashflows back into today\u2019s dollar and subtract the costs to gain an understanding of whether to invest or not. This approach is exceptionally rigid and requires a lot of decision making up front and a commitment to a single direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In business school one of my favorite classes was called \u201cRisk and Real Options\u201d, an exploration of financial valuation through a study of options theory and how \u201creal options\u201d \u2014 business opportunities evaluated through the lens of options theory \u2014 can provide strategic value in a portfolio of products by embracing volatility and deferring decisions. Good-bye fixed futures, hello flexibility. And this is good<\/em> because these days the world is pretty much 100% VUCA (volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous), 100% of the time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So if we\u2019re dealing with a VUCA world you can start to see how calculating ROI based off of a 5 year projection and discounting back to today\u2019s dollars using NPV is actually quite risky. A lot can change in 5 years! And yet traditional NPV is fully committed to a particular outcome. Real options, however, are all about flexibility. Instead of committing to a single future, real options give us the ability to \u201cbuy\u201d the option to many futures. As time passes the value of certain futures will be \u201cin the money\u201d while others \u201cout the money\u201d at which point we can make a decision to commit to one path over another, learning as we go. An article from the McKinsey Quarterly<\/a>about the value of real options even makes the statement that \u201c\u2026 the option valuation recognizes the value of learning.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deferring decisions is only valuable if you are actively learning as you go. And real options allow you to learn. There are a number of different option pricing models, but the one that made the little light bulb go off was the Binomial Options Pricing Model (BOPM). BOPM uses an iterative pricing approach with two possible outcomes at each iteration. This is visualized in a binomial lattice whose output would look something like this:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/
A binomial lattice illustrating potential option pricing over 7 periods.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Each \u2018step\u2019 in the lattice is a point of reflection where you can decide whether or not to continue investing in the project. Real options allow you to learn! As my professor Peter Ritchken says, \u201cyou should think of the project as an investment in an option. If you learn good things, then you exercise the option and win big. If you learn bad things, you walk away after the information becomes available.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I started out this whole mess by talking about business and design and value and learning. The dots start to connect when you think about mapping the divergent and abductive sense-making of design activities onto the binomial lattice, both fanning out into a future of unknowns. Rapid iterations through the design loop could feed into decision points at each step in the lattice. Liberated from the need to predict the future, design and real options create value through learning and delayed decision making. By removing the need to make all decisions up front you increase flexibility, decrease risk, and embrace volatility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Going back to Design Methods<\/a>, J. Christopher Jones writes that \u201c[t]he purpose of any method of designing, orderly or muddled, is to get one\u2019s mind to become familiar with the unknown possibilities and limitations of \u2018the new\u2019 before making irrevocable decisions.\u201d I find myself in this scenario on a weekly basis, using design activities to determine what decisions (both strategic and tactical) can be delayed and what we would need to learn to make them at some point in the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Next Steps<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

The intention in sharing where I\u2019m at conceptually with these reflections on the value of design is to get a read on what resonates, what needs explicating, and what isn\u2019t working. I shared a really <\/em>rough version a few weeks ago in my newsletter<\/a> which spawned some good conversations \u2014 early indicators this framing is useful. I\u2019d also like to give a super <\/em>big thanks to Chris Avore<\/a>, Scott Berkun<\/a>, Scott Taylor<\/a>, and Lindie Gerber<\/a> for their insights and feedback.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What isn\u2019t clear to me yet is how to start mapping design activities more concretely to the concept of real options. Visualizing the relationship between the lattice and the double diamond, understanding how learning loops can inform decision making, and thinking about the practical application of these models the next big area to dig into (I\u2019ll be sharing more via Medium and in a few talks I have coming up). And last but not least, if you are a kindred spirit who is interested in this type of work, let\u2019s chat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source: https:\/\/medium.com\/@pnts\/reflections-on-business-design-and-value-bb398cada721<\/a> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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