{"id":3043,"date":"2019-09-23T11:05:42","date_gmt":"2019-09-23T09:05:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.dazzlepop.net\/site\/?p=3043"},"modified":"2020-05-06T12:17:25","modified_gmt":"2020-05-06T10:17:25","slug":"u-s-temperatures-unchanged-since-2005-a-follow-up","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.dazzlepop.net\/site\/u-s-temperatures-unchanged-since-2005-a-follow-up\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201cU.S. temperatures unchanged since 2005\u201d: A follow-up"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"text-align:center\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\";http:\/\/suindependent.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/U.S.-temperatures-unchanged-since-2005-A-follow-up.jpg\" class=\"attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"\u201cU.S. temperatures unchanged since 2005\u201d: A follow-up\" title=\"\u201cU.S. temperatures unchanged since 2005\u201d: A follow-up\" \/><\/div>\n<p>\u201cU.S. temperatures unchanged since 2005\u201d: A follow-up. My column last week titled \u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/www.noaa.gov\">NOAA<\/a>: U.S. temperatures unchanged since 2005\u201d attracted a large number of readers and a number of skeptical comments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u201cU.S. temperatures unchanged since 2005\u201d: A follow-up<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>My column last week titled \u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/suindependent.com\/category\/opinion-columns-cartoons-letters\/columns-opinion-columnist-independent\/howard-sierer\/\">NOAA: U.S. temperatures unchanged since 2005<\/a>\u201d attracted a large number of readers and a number of skeptical comments. A&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/suindependent.com\/letter-editor-howard-sierers-u-s-temperatures-unchanged-since-2005\/\">letter to the editor<\/a>&nbsp;from Mark Rosenthal offered an alternative interpretation of NOAA\u2019s data as did several commenters on the Independent\u2019s&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/suindependent\">Facebook page<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the risk of wearing out my welcome on this subject, here is additional background information about NOAA\u2019s Climate Reference Network and how its data contrasts with other <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dazzlepop.net\/site\/category\/news\/\">NOAA<\/a> data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/suindependent.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/NOAA-U.S.-temperatures-unchanged-since-2005.jpg?fit=1070%2C673&amp;ssl=1\" alt=\"\u201cU.S. temperatures unchanged since 2005\u201d: A follow-up\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>As a start, note that NOAA spent tens of millions of dollars to construct the Climate Reference Network \u2014 or CRN \u2014 in 2005. NOAA intended to gather temperature data that did not require the \u201cadjustments\u201d it has been making to historical temperature data and the controversy that surrounds them. In so doing, it acknowledged that there is uncertainty in its historical data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As my critics have suggested, there are several ways to analyze NOAA\u2019s CRN temperatures collected from 2005 onward. Rosenthal computes the average CRN temperature over the 14-year interval, noting that it\u2019s higher than the single-year 2005 average. A Facebook commenter computed a&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Simple_linear_regression\">linear regression<\/a>: a sloping, \u201cbest fit\u201d straight line through the data. Both methods indicate increasing temperatures by incorporating the distinct upward spikes in temperature in 2012 and again in 2015\u201316.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I chose instead to compare what NOAA calls the average temperature \u201canomaly\u201d (the difference from NOAA\u2019s&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncdc.noaa.gov\/temp-and-precip\/national-temperature-index\/background?fbclid=IwAR0Y3DUo09vXo4ioEYCFkAMEXUuWL9GnIC0psyrso8RI5Xf7xhS3Cc_BU80\">National Temperature Index<\/a>, or NTI) for the beginning and ending years, 2005 and 2018. NOAA uses the NTI as a reference to eliminate seasonal variations that otherwise would mask underlying trends. NOAA presents its&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncdc.noaa.gov\/temp-and-precip\/national-temperature-index\/time-series?datasets%5B%5D=uscrn&amp;parameter=anom-tavg&amp;time_scale=p12&amp;begyear=2004&amp;endyear=2019&amp;month=12\">14 years of monthly CRN data<\/a>&nbsp;as the difference or \u201canomaly\u201d between the CRN measurement and the NTI for that month. Since the same NTI is used for all 14 years, the anomaly graph makes comparing monthly temperature trends over the 14 years much easier to analyze.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In 2005, the average anomaly was +0.78 degrees F, and in 2018 it was +0.94 degrees F. That method shows a slight rise of about +0.1 degree F per decade. Note, however, that the month-by-month trend starting in 2016 is distinctly downward. In fact, NOAA\u2019s CRN anomaly data averages&nbsp;<em>minus<\/em>&nbsp;0.05 degrees F for the most recent 12 months, September 2018 through August 2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>None of us knows whether future CRN data will continue downward, stay about the same, or trend back up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But the point of my article, the one that caught so much attention and flak, is that CRN data shows that temperatures today over broad swaths of the country are about what they were in 2005.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So what about the temperature history graphs that show ever-rising temperatures that NOAA itself puts out?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I made the point in&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/suindependent.com\/category\/opinion-columns-cartoons-letters\/columns-opinion-columnist-independent\/howard-sierer\/\">last week\u2019s column<\/a>&nbsp;that these graphs show temperatures after NOAA has \u201cadjusted\u201d them to account for known problems in its data collection: urban heat islands, varying time of day readings, etc. As I stated, these adjustments are both estimates and controversial.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A thorough technical analysis of how NOAA and NASA \u201cadjust\u201d historical raw temperature measurements is covered\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/principia-scientific.org\/how-noaa-nasa-doctored-temperature-data-to-get-record-warm-years\/\">here<\/a>. The bottom line is contained in NOAA\u2019s own graph. Raw, unadjusted temperature data show a clear cooling trend since 1934, the hottest year on record in the U.S.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Read more:  <a href=\"http:\/\/suindependent.com\/u-s-temperatures-unchanged-since-2005-follow\/\">http:\/\/suindependent.com\/u-s-temperatures-unchanged-since-2005-follow\/<\/a> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201cU.S. temperatures unchanged since 2005\u201d: A follow-up. My column last week titled \u201cNOAA: U.S. temperatures unchanged since 2005\u201d attracted a large number of readers and a number of skeptical comments. \u201cU.S. temperatures unchanged since 2005\u201d: A follow-up My column last week titled \u201cNOAA: U.S. temperatures unchanged since 2005\u201d attracted a large number of readers and [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":8045,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_vp_format_video_url":"","_vp_image_focal_point":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[35],"tags":[36,185],"class_list":["post-3043","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-news","tag-noaa"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Dazzlepop | \u201cU.S. temperatures unchanged since 2005\u201d: A follow-up<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u201cU.S. temperatures unchanged since 2005\u201d: A follow-up. 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My column last week titled \u201cNOAA: U.S. temperatures unchanged since 2005\u201d attracted a large number","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.dazzlepop.net\/site\/u-s-temperatures-unchanged-since-2005-a-follow-up\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Dazzlepop | \u201cU.S. temperatures unchanged since 2005\u201d: A follow-up","og_description":"\u201cU.S. temperatures unchanged since 2005\u201d: A follow-up. My column last week titled \u201cNOAA: U.S. temperatures unchanged since 2005\u201d attracted a large number","og_url":"https:\/\/www.dazzlepop.net\/site\/u-s-temperatures-unchanged-since-2005-a-follow-up\/","og_site_name":"Dazzlepop","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/dp.Dazzlepop","article_published_time":"2019-09-23T09:05:42+00:00","article_modified_time":"2020-05-06T10:17:25+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"http:\/\/suindependent.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/U.S.-temperatures-unchanged-since-2005-A-follow-up.jpg","type":"","width":"","height":""}],"author":"Noura Ibrahim","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_image":"http:\/\/suindependent.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/U.S.-temperatures-unchanged-since-2005-A-follow-up.jpg","twitter_creator":"@dazzle_pop","twitter_site":"@dazzle_pop","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Noura Ibrahim","Est. reading time":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.dazzlepop.net\/site\/u-s-temperatures-unchanged-since-2005-a-follow-up\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.dazzlepop.net\/site\/u-s-temperatures-unchanged-since-2005-a-follow-up\/"},"author":{"name":"Noura Ibrahim","@id":"https:\/\/www.dazzlepop.net\/site\/#\/schema\/person\/53e5e5cffa9109e865719dcfdc83b6b5"},"headline":"\u201cU.S. temperatures unchanged since 2005\u201d: A follow-up","datePublished":"2019-09-23T09:05:42+00:00","dateModified":"2020-05-06T10:17:25+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.dazzlepop.net\/site\/u-s-temperatures-unchanged-since-2005-a-follow-up\/"},"wordCount":583,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.dazzlepop.net\/site\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.dazzlepop.net\/site\/u-s-temperatures-unchanged-since-2005-a-follow-up\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":";http:\/\/suindependent.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/U.S.-temperatures-unchanged-since-2005-A-follow-up.jpg","keywords":["news","NOAA"],"articleSection":["News"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.dazzlepop.net\/site\/u-s-temperatures-unchanged-since-2005-a-follow-up\/","url":"https:\/\/www.dazzlepop.net\/site\/u-s-temperatures-unchanged-since-2005-a-follow-up\/","name":"Dazzlepop | \u201cU.S. temperatures unchanged since 2005\u201d: A follow-up","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.dazzlepop.net\/site\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.dazzlepop.net\/site\/u-s-temperatures-unchanged-since-2005-a-follow-up\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.dazzlepop.net\/site\/u-s-temperatures-unchanged-since-2005-a-follow-up\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":";http:\/\/suindependent.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/U.S.-temperatures-unchanged-since-2005-A-follow-up.jpg","datePublished":"2019-09-23T09:05:42+00:00","dateModified":"2020-05-06T10:17:25+00:00","description":"\u201cU.S. temperatures unchanged since 2005\u201d: A follow-up. 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